17 June 2008
There Is No Obama Hispanic Problem.
0 commentsThe recent NBC poll on Hispanic preference for the next president isn't just interesting for the fact that a major piece of conventional wisdom appears to have been based on mind-blowingly inane supposition—it's also interesting for the fact that the NBC political team is using the kind of language that makes it nearly impossible for anyone to continue using Obama's Hispanic problem as a talking point and retain any kind of credibility.
In addition to our recent NBC/WSJ poll, which showed Hispanics breaking for Obama 62%-28%, a new survey of800 Latino voters from 21 states finds that 60% of them plan to vote for Obama versus 23% for McCain. That is down considerably from the 40%-plus Bush received in 2004. It’s no longer fair to say that Obama has a problem with Latino voters; McCain does. This was a case of conventional wisdom that was never based on fact, just semi-informed speculation based on primary exit polling and bad stereotypes of Latinos.
Polling is a really shoddy way to make a fact-based argument, unless the polling indicates a seismic 37% gap between two candidates. In which case, it is probably safe to say that Hispanic voters favored Clinton over Obama, but overwhelmingly favor Obama over McCain.
It's also worth noting that in a post-Russert world, this is another Caveman Dunk for Chuck Todd's NBC political unit, who have been ripping the still-beating heart out of dumb, fact-free narratives for almost the entirety of primary season.
Give the man the job.


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